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With a junta-led constitutional system designed to protect the conservative establishment, many Thais, and especially youths, are desperate.

The undemocratic reality of Thai politics was on full display at the first joint session of the Thai parliament on 13 July 2023. The charismatic leader of the progressive and pro-democratic Move Forward Party, Pita Limjaroenrat, was from becoming the country’s 30th prime minister by the junta-appointed Senate. To put this in context, Pita secured the support of 311 of 500 newly elected MPs, all hailing from the Move Forward-led coalition consisting of eight political parties, including the Thaksin-aligned Pheu Thai.

He also had the backing of more than 14 million Thais who gave Move Forward their party list vote in the May 2023 election, earning the Party 39 parliamentary seats. This was in addition to the 112 Move Forward candidates who gained the trust of their respective constituents, helping the Party to its . And yet, all this was not enough to secure Pita the country’s top political office.

Only 13 junta-appointed senators honoured the will of the Thai electorate during the prime ministerial vote. One senator from the Senate a day before the vote, the rest either voted against Pita (34 senators), abstained from voting (159 senators) or did not turn up for the vote (43 senators). Pita needed to win at least 375 votes, a simple majority from both houses of the Thai parliament, but fell short of this number by 51 votes.

Pita’s road to the premiership was always going to be , if not entirely impossible, given the current design of Thailand’s political system, much of which was crafted under the direct rule of the 2014 military junta. The system to weaken the electoral fortunes of political parties associated with former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, who has loomed large over Thai politics for the past twenty years despite spending most of this time in self-imposed exile.

Elections used to be Thaksin’s main trump card against the conservative Thai establishment that is centred on the powerful monarchy-military alliance. Having built a loyal voter base in the North and Northeast, Thailand’s two most populous regions, Thaksin-aligned parties enjoyed an unprecedented streak of electoral victories. They won all general elections between 2001 and 2019.

Unable to defeat them at the polls, the conservative Thai establishment resorted to unconstitutional means of ousting Thaksin-aligned parties from power via military means. But military coups are costly, and they do not always work. The 2006 coup did little damage to Thaksin’s popularity, while the 2014 coup created a new “enemy” for the conservative Thai establishment in the who have grown fed up with the country’s undemocratic politics.

Having learned from the failed 2006 coup, the 2014 military junta led by General Prayuth Chan-o-cha designed an elaborate system of “insurance” mechanisms to arrest any real prospects for democracy should the Thai elections continue to return the “wrong” result. The is one of the most striking examples of this. The Senate secured Prayuth another four years in the prime minister’s office following the 2019 election, even though the Prayuth-aligned Palang Pracharat Party did not win the most parliamentary seats. Now in 2023, the senate is blocking Pita’s chances for the premiership. It is quite sobering to think that a couple of hundred people that nobody had voted for can overturn the will of millions, essentially making the May 2023 elections meaningless.

The Move Forward Party is not giving up yet. A day after the failed prime ministerial vote, it a parliamentary proposal to amend the 2017 military-drafted constitution to divest the Senate of the right to vote for the country’s prime minister. But the devil is in the detail. For any such proposal to succeed Move Forward needs the Senate’s support, which it is unlikely to get. The constitution put a five-year limit on the Senate’s right to join elected members of parliament in the prime ministerial vote. This is due to expire in May 2024, which is still a long way away.

The Move Forward-led coalition will nominate Pita as the country’s prime minister again at the next parliamentary vote on 19 July, but if he fails to secure enough support this could spell the end of Move Forward’s bid to lead the next government. Pheu Thai is already sending signals that it is ready to propose one of its own prime ministerial candidates, putting pressure on Pita to step aside if he cannot win at the next vote. This scenario may see Pheu Thai opt to exclude Move Forward from its coalition government and instead join hands with parties backed by the conservative establishment. This would guarantee the Senate’s support for its candidate.

As it stands, several senators are trying to Pita from being renominated in the 19 July prime ministerial vote. This is not the only hurdle Pita, his party, and the Move-Forward led coalition face. The , together with the , can continue to arrest the country’s prospects for democracy for some time to come without any help from the Senate. A day before the prime ministerial vote, the Election Commission the Constitutional Court to rule on a media share controversy involving Pita that could see him disqualified from his MP status just like his predecessor Future Forward Party leader, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit.

On the same day, the Constitutional Court accepted a separate accusing the Move Forward Party of wanting to abolish the country’s monarchy. This claim was based on the Party’s campaign promise to amend the country’s strict lese majesté law. The petition could see the entire Party dissolved, much like the Future Forward Party. Both of these issues were by the junta-appointed senators and members of parliament from the parties aligned with the outgoing Prayuth-led government during the parliamentary debate that preceded the prime ministerial vote. The fact that the Thai monarchy would hardly be an acceptable subject of parliamentary debates just three years ago, does not make the vote’s result any less painful for Move Forward’s supporters.

The unexpected electoral victory of the Move Forward Party at the May 2023 election was borne out in large part of the 2020-2021 pro-democracy, student-led protests calling for reforms of the previously sacrosanct monarchy. The 13 July prime ministerial vote was a conservative push-back against the changing tide of Thai politics and the increasingly vocal demands for democracy from Thais up and down the country. Thailand’s current political system does not make space for democracy, and while the Move Forward victory was an encouraging step forward, the question hangs on whether the Party can translate this victory into a more democratic future for the country. This will depend to a large extent on the conservative Thai establishment and its willingness to let go of power.

Will the conservative Thai establishment continue to arrest the country’s prospects for democracy at all costs? If so, Thailand is likely to descend into street politics once again with prospects for violence and further military coups back on the table.

This article was originally published by on 18th July 2023.