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Donald Trump and William McKinley: What can the past tell us about the political risks of tariffs?

Dr Nathan Cardon talks through the tariffs implemented by President William McKinley and what cautionary lessons Donald Trump could learn.

Donald Trump standing at a campaign-branded lectern against a backdrop of supporters

鈥淧resident Donald Trump has stated a fondness for William McKinley, 25th president of the US from 1897-1901. One reason for this is McKinley鈥檚 role in spearheading the Tariff Act of 1890, known as the McKinley Tariff, while serving as a congressman.

鈥淭he United States first imposed a system of tariffs on imported goods in 1789 to protect the manufacturers of the new nation. In 1861, Republicans enacted the Morrill Tariff, which doubled the tax rate on hundreds of imported goods to raise money for the Union Army during the Civil War and protect northern business. The most consequential tariff of the nineteenth century, however, was McKinley鈥檚 in 1890. It raised the tax on imported goods to between 38 and 49.5 percent. In an era of monopolies and oligopolies, this meant that big businesses 鈥攁ssured they wouldn鈥檛 face competition from Europe鈥攔aised the price of domestic goods to new heights. The McKinley Tariff, far from making America great, contributed to a downturn in the U.S. economy and helped destabilise the political landscape of the 1890s.

鈥淎mericans, faced with rising prices, punished the Republican Party in that November鈥檚 elections. Democrats retook the House, and McKinley lost his seat. In the Senate, the Republican majority was reduced to just four senators, while a new political movement of farmers and workers鈥攖he People鈥檚 Party or Populists鈥攅merged as a powerful third voice in American politics. Although the Democrats partially reduced the McKinley Tariff, with the economy already weakened, the collapse of a railroad company in 1893 triggered a financial crisis that led to the worst economic depression in the nation鈥檚 history until the Great Depression of the 1930s.

鈥淲hen McKinley was elected President in 1897 unemployment was still near 20 percent. Upon entering the White House, McKinley signed into law the Dingley Tariff, undoing the small cuts made by the Democrats. However, at the start of McKinley鈥檚 second term his enthusiasm for tariffs was wavering. The day before his death, he gave his backing to reciprocal trade treaties. His successor, Theodore Roosevelt, continued McKinley鈥檚 support for expansionist American power abroad and high tariffs.

鈥淎s we have seen this week in Wisconsin and looking ahead to the 2026 midterms, congressional Republicans might do well to remember the political punishment their party faced at the polling station after the full impact of the McKinley Tariff was felt by the American public.鈥

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