Professor Richard Riley BSc, MSc, PhD

Richard Riley

Department of Applied Health Sciences
Professor of Biostatistics

Contact details

Email
r.d.riley@bham.ac.uk
Twitter
Address
Public Health Building
Department of Applied Health Sciences
University 麻豆精选

Richard Riley is a Professor of Biostatistics at the University 麻豆精选, leading a team of statisticians undertaking applied and methodology research for healthcare, especially in regard to prognosis, prediction models, and evidence synthesis.

Richard is Chief Statistics Editor for the BMJ and BMJ Medicine, a co-convenor of the Cochrane Prognosis Methods Group, Deputy Chair of the MRC-NIHR Better Methods Better Research panel, and a long-serving panel member of the NIHR Doctoral Fellowships scheme. He is the lead statistician on numerous applied and methodological healthcare related grants, from funders including the MRC and NIHR, and has published over 200 research articles and is lead Editor on 2 textbooks.

Richard hosts the websites and

Qualifications

  • PhD “Evidence Synthesis of Prognostic Marker Studies”, University of Leicester, 2006
  • MSc Medical Statistics, University of Leicester, 1999
  • BSc Mathematics with Statistics, University of Nottingham, 1998

Biography

Richard is a biostatistician with over twenty-years experience of methodology innovation and application. He is an expert on methods for meta-analysis, risk prediction and prognosis research. In meta-analysis, he specialises in methods for synthesising individual participant data (IPD), and is lead Editor of the book “Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis: A Handbook for Healthcare Research”, published by Wiley in 2021.

In prognosis, Richard co-leads the PROGRESS initiative (PROGnosis RE麻豆精选 Strategy), that seeks to improve the standards of prognosis research, including the development and validation of risk prediction models. A major focus is his work on sample size calculations for developing and validation prediction models. He is the lead Editor of the book ‘Prognosis Research in Healthcare: Concepts, Methods and Impact’, published by Oxford University Press in 2019.

Richard is also a senior member of the steering committee for TRIPOD, which produce reporting guidelines for prediction model studies, and founder and co-convenor of the Cochrane Prognosis methods group, which produce guidance for undertaking systematic reviews of prognosis studies.

He leads various training courses in risk prediction, prognosis research and IPD meta-analysis at Keele, and hosts the websites and .

Richard’s YouTube channel is  and examples include:

  • Key Steps and Common Pitfalls in Clinical Prediction Model Research
  • Sample size calculations for clinical prediction model research (aka "goodbye rules of thumb"
  • Power Calculations for Individual Participant Data (IPD) Meta-Analysis Projects
  • Sample size calculations for external validation of a clinical prediction model
  • Stability of Clinical Prediction Models Developed Using Statistical or Machine Learning Approaches

Teaching

Richard leads various training courses in risk prediction, prognosis research and IPD meta-analysis at Keele, and details are shown at and .

Publications

Recent publications

Article

Riley, RD, Collins, GS, Kirton, L, Snell, KIE, Ensor, J, Whittle, R, Dhiman, P, van Smeden, M, Liu, X, Alderman, J, Nirantharakumar, K, Manson-Whitton, J, Westwood, AJ, Cazier, J-B, Moons, KGM, Martin, GP, Sperrin, M, Denniston, AK, Jr, FEH & Archer, L 2025, '', BMJ, vol. 388, e080749.

MuM-PreDiCT Group 2024, '', BMC medicine, vol. 22, no. 1, 66.

Whittle, R, Ensor, J, Hattle, M, Dhiman, P, Collins, GS & Riley, RD 2024, '', Research Synthesis Methods.

Pate, A, Sperrin, M, Riley, RD, Peek, N, Van Staa, T, Sergeant, JC, Mamas, MA, Lip, GYH, O'Flaherty, M, Barrowman, M, Buchan, I & Martin, GP 2024, '', Statistics in Medicine.

Archer, L, Hattle, M, Riley, RD & The eFI+ investigators 2024, '', Age and Ageing, vol. 53, no. 3, afae057.

Farooq, S, Hattle, M, Kingstone, T, Ajnakina, O, Dazzan, P, Demjaha, A, Murray, RM, Di Forti, M, Jones, PB, Doody, GA, Shiers, D, Andrews, G, Milner, A, Nettis, MA, Lawrence, AJ, van der Windt, DA & Riley, RD 2024, '', British Journal of Psychology, vol. 225, no. 3, pp. 379-388.

Kirton, L, Riley, R, Gaunt, P, Brennan, B & Snell, K 2024, '', BMJ open, vol. 14, no. 12, e082941.

for the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications collaborative network 2024, '', BMJ Medicine, vol. 3, no. 1, e000784.

Moriarty, AS, Paton, LW, Snell, KIE, Archer, L, Riley, RD, Buckman, JEJ, Chew Graham, CA, Gilbody, S, Ali, S, Pilling, S, Meader, N, Phillips, B, Coventry, PA, Delgadillo, J, Richards, DA, Salisbury, C & McMillan, D 2024, '', BMJ Mental Health, vol. 27, no. 1, e301226.

Collins, GS, Dhiman, P, Ma, J, Schlussel, MM, Archer, L, Van Calster, B, Jr, FEH, Martin, GP, Moons, KGM, van Smeden, M, Sperrin, M, Bullock, GS & Riley, RD 2024, '', BMJ, vol. 384, e074819.

Riley, RD, Archer, L, Snell, KIE, Ensor, J, Dhiman, P, Martin, GP, Bonnett, LJ & Collins, GS 2024, '', BMJ (Clinical research ed.), vol. 384, e074820.

Riley, RD, Snell, KIE, Archer, L, Ensor, J, Debray, TPA, Van Calster, B, Van Smeden, M & Collins, GS 2024, '', BMJ, vol. 384, e074821.

Hattle, M, Ensor, J, Scandrett, K, van Middelkoop, M, van der Windt, DA, Holden, MA & Riley, RD 2024, '', Research Synthesis Methods.

Review article

Tsegaye, B, Snell, KIE, Archer, L, Kirtley, S, Riley, RD, Sperrin, M, Van Calster, B, Collins, GS & Dhiman, P 2025, '', Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, vol. 180, 111675.

Crocker, TF, Ensor, J, Lam, N, Jord茫o, M, Bajpai, R, Bond, M, Forster, A, Riley, RD, Andre, D, Brundle, C, Ellwood, A, Green, J, Hale, M, Mirza, L, Morgan, J, Patel, I, Patetsini, E, Prescott, M, Ramiz, R, Todd, O, Walford, R, Gladman, J & Clegg, A 2024, '', BMJ, vol. 384, no. 8422, e077764.